IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Cabo Verde on the Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

  • IMF staff and Cabo Verdean authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the sixth ECF review and third RSF review, and a fifteen-month extension of both arrangements with an augmentation equivalent to thirty percent of quota under the extended ECF.
  • The ECF-supported program aims to strengthen public finances, ensure debt sustainability, minimize fiscal risks from public enterprises, modernize monetary policy, and raise potential growth. The RSF supports government climate reforms and catalyzes private climate finance. Extension to December 2026 supports the continued success of the authorities’ economic policy and reform agenda.
  • All end-December 2024 ECF structural benchmarks (SB) and quantitative performance criteria (PCs) were met. The implementation of reform measures (RMs) under the RSF has been progressing, but some reforms will take more time than expected.

Praia, Cabo Verde: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Martin Schindler held meetings with the Cabo Verdean authorities during May 5 – 13, 2025, to discuss the sixth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, the third review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement, and economic policies and reforms to be supported under an extension of both arrangements. Access under the existing ECF is 190 percent of quota (SDR 45.03 million, approximately US$ 63.3 million) and access under the RSF is 100 percent of quota (SDR 23.69 million, approximately US$ 31.69 million). The augmentation of 30 percent of quota (SDR 7.11 million) will bring the total ECF arrangement to SDR 52.14 million.

At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Schindler issued the following statement:

“I am pleased to announce that the IMF team and the Cabo Verdean authorities reached staff-level agreements on the policies needed to complete the sixth review under the ECF-supported program and the third review of the RSF arrangement as well as on economic policies and reforms that could be supported by an extension. Upon approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, completion of the sixth ECF review will allow disbursement of SDR 4.51 million (approximately US$ 6.09 million), while the completion of the third RSF review will allow disbursement of up to SDR 7.896 million (approximately US$ 10.66 million), depending on reform progress under the RSF.

“Cabo Verde’s economy continues to perform well, underpinned by tourism, robust export performance and private consumption growth. Increasing the execution of the government’s capital budget would enhance potential growth. Economic growth in 2024 was strong at 7.3 percent, with 1.0 percent inflation and a current account surplus. The 2024 fiscal balance exceeded program targets, driven by lower primary expenditures and strong tax revenue growth. The public debt-to-GDP ratio continues to decline.

“All end-December 2024 structural benchmarks (SB) and quantitative performance criteria (PCs) were met. The implementation of reform measures (RMs) under the RSF has been progressing, but some reforms will take more time than expected.

“Cabo Verde’s economic outlook remains solid. GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 5.2 percent, while inflation is expected to converge to about 2 percent in 2025 and over the medium-term, broadly in line with euro area inflation. The current account balance is projected to gradually return to a deficit of 1.3 percent of GDP in 2025, and then stabilize at around -3.5 percent over the medium term.

“Fiscal performance is forecast to be strong in 2025. Cabo Verde aims to maintain a fiscal path aligned with debt reduction goals, targeting a higher primary balance than foreseen under the previous review. Tax revenue is expected to increase reflecting ongoing tax reforms.

“The mission welcomed the BCV’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to raise the deposit rate by 30 basis points to 2.25 percent to fully close the gap with the ECB. Continued data-driven adjustments in monetary policy may be needed to protect the exchange rate peg and appropriate reserves buffers. Data for end-March 2025 suggests that the financial system is liquid, profitable, and well capitalized.

“The macroeconomic outlook remains favorable but is subject to substantial downside risks. Cabo Verde is vulnerable to external shocks, including in energy, food prices, and tourism, especially in the context of heightened uncertainties in global trade frameworks. A global growth slowdown and supply chain disruptions would have a negative impact on tourism, inflation, and growth. Climate-related risks, such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events, pose long-term threats to infrastructure and economic stability. Delays in SOE reforms and increasing public debt could undermine fiscal sustainability. On the upside, continued strength in tourist arrivals could lift growth. Legislative and Presidential elections will take place in 2026.

“The IMF team is grateful to the Cabo Verdean authorities and other stakeholders for the productive discussions, hospitality, and candid discussions.”

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/13/pr25144-cabo-verde-imf-reaches-sla-on-the-6th-rev-under-the-ecf-and-3rd-rev-under-the-rsf-arr

MIL OSI

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with St. Kitts and Nevis

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for St. Kitts and Nevis[1] The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.

Following the post-pandemic rebound, the economy is facing challenges. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.5 percent in 2024, reflecting lower contributions from tourism and government services, while inflation eased to 1 percent. The fiscal deficit increased to 11 percent of GDP in 2024, mainly driven by a sharp decline in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue amid recent reforms aimed at strengthening the CBI program. The current account deficit widened due to lower CBI inflows. Meanwhile, credit growth accelerated on the back of pent-up demand, especially in mortgage loans, amid increasing competition. Groundwork is ongoing for a potentially transformative geothermal project.

In 2025, economic growth is projected to strengthen to 2 percent supported by expanding tourism, while inflation is expected to remain stable.[2] In the medium term, growth is forecast to rise to 2½ percent, benefiting from large energy projects. Nonetheless, fiscal deficits are forecasted to remain high in the medium term, driven by expectations of structurally lower CBI revenue, resulting in public debt exceeding 70 percent of GDP by 2030.

Near-term risks to growth are tilted to the downside, but progress in fostering renewable energy provides upside potential over the medium term. The uncertainty and volatility of CBI revenue pose a significant two-sided risk, but a further decline in CBI revenue would pressure fiscal accounts. Downside risks include a slowdown in key source markets for tourism, global financial instability, and commodity price volatility. The economy is highly exposed to natural disasters. On the other hand, the energy projects could foster growth and fiscal revenue in the medium term.

Executive Board Assessment[3]

Executive Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to prudent policy reforms and stressed that the significant challenges the economy is facing require a multipronged approach to address low growth and fiscal sustainability, while safeguarding financial stability and the external position.

Directors encouraged the authorities to implement a prompt and decisive fiscal consolidation to keep public debt below the regional debt ceiling and reduce reliance on the Citizenship‑by‑Investment Program (CBI). This would create space for capital expenditure, resilience against natural disasters, and contingent liabilities. Directors stressed that fiscal consolidation should be driven by tax revenue mobilization and reductions in current expenditures, anchored by fiscal rules. Greater diversification of funding sources would also help to lengthen debt maturities and lower financing costs. Directors supported the authorities’ plan to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to absorb upsides in CBI revenue and called for continuing improvements in the CBI framework, including its transparency. They also welcomed the authorities’ initiatives to implement reforms to improve the sustainability of the Social Security Fund.

Directors underscored that further progress is needed to strengthen the financial sector, including to reduce NPLs and meet the ECCB’s prudential requirements. They emphasized the importance of continuing to strengthen the balance sheet of the systemic bank and to revitalize its business model. Directors also called for reforms of the Development Bank, building on the authorities’ work in this area. They stressed the need to monitor rapid credit growth and further strengthen the regulation and oversight of credit unions. It will also be important to make additional progress in strengthening the AML/CFT framework.

Directors emphasized that structural reforms and improved preparedness for natural disasters are crucial to boost potential growth. They stressed that reforms are necessary to enhance the efficiency of government services, improve credit access, and better align labor skills with market demands. Directors noted that accelerating the energy transition would help increase competitiveness. Finally, they underscored the need to enhance the investment and the multi‑layered insurance frameworks to strengthen natural disaster preparedness.

St. Kitts and Nevis: Selected Economic Indicators 2020-26 1/

   

Est.

Proj.

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified)

National income and prices

Real GDP (market prices) 2/

-14.6

-1.7

10.5

4.3

1.5

2.0

2.2

Real GDP (factor cost) 2/

-13.4

-1.0

8.0

5.0

4.3

0.7

0.5

Consumer prices, period average

-1.2

1.2

2.7

3.6

1.0

1.7

2.0

Real effective exchange rate appreciation (+) (end-of-period)

-1.0

-3.1

-1.4

-0.7

-2.4

Money and credit 3/

Broad money

-8.1

8.9

3.7

-1.9

2.5

13.5

8.9

Change in net foreign assets

-0.4

9.1

-7.0

-6.4

-12.8

-2.3

-2.0

Net credit to general government

-18.4

-4.8

4.9

0.3

9.3

10.3

6.6

Credit to private sector

-4.0

7.7

5.8

5.2

9.8

8.1

6.4

(In percent of GDP)

Public sector 4/

Total revenue and grants

33.5

46.6

45.2

43.0

31.1

32.5

33.2

  o/w Tax revenue

18.8

19.0

18.4

19.3

18.7

18.2

19.0

  o/w CBI fees

11.3

23.4

25.3

21.7

8.1

9.0

9.0

Total expenditure and net lending

36.5

41.2

49.4

43.3

41.7

42.2

39.8

Overall balance

-3.1

5.4

-4.2

-0.3

-10.6

-9.8

-6.6

Total public debt (end-of-period)

68.0

69.1

60.2

55.9

52.2

61.4

65.6

General government deposits

(percent of GDP) 5/

21.6

30.4

21.6

20.4

10.4

10.3

9.9

External sector

External current account balance

-10.8

-3.4

-11.4

-11.6

-15.1

-13.1

-12.8

Trade balance

-28.0

-24.8

-34.7

-32.8

-32.7

-32.3

-33.3

Memorandum items

 

 

 

 

Net international reserves, end-of-period

 

 

 

(in millions of U.S. dollars)

365.4

312.8

270.3

262.4

270.7

269.0

267.3

 

 

 

Nominal GDP at market prices

(in millions of EC$)

2,387

2,318

2,650

2,850

3,017

3,048

3,171

Sources: St. Kitts and Nevis authorities; ECCB; UNDP; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1/ The staff report projections are based on the information available as of March 27, 2025. Therefore, they do not reflect the impact of trade tensions since April 2, 2025.

2/ In June 2021, the National Statistics Office revised historical GDP series.

3/ The series for monetary aggregates have been revised consistent with the 2016 Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide.

4/ Consolidated general government balances. Primary and overall balances are based on above-the-line data.

5/ Includes only central government deposits at the commercial banks.

                             

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Since the issuance of the Staff Report, economic growth has been marked down, reflecting the impact of trade tensions combined with their effects on global policy uncertainty and global financial conditions, primarily through tourism and FDI (see the Supplement).

[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Rosa Hernandez Gomez

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/12/pr-25139-st-kitts-and-nevis-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation

MIL OSI

IMF Staff Completes 2025 Post-Financing Assessment Mission to Angola

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

  • Angola’s economic growth for 2024 was strong, but the outlook has deteriorated posing risks.
  • Staff and authorities had a productive engagement on managing emerging risks and identifying mitigation measures.
  • Angola’s Post-Financing Assessment is expected to be discussed at the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2025.

Luanda, Angola: An IMF team lead by Ms. Mika Saito visited Luanda between May 6-12 to conduct Angola’s 2025 post-financing assessment (PFA).[1] Angola’s economy experienced a robust recovery in 2024 driven both by stronger oil production and a rebound in the non-oil sector. Real GDP growth reached 4.4 percent, surpassing earlier projections. While inflation remains elevated, inflationary pressures also eased somewhat in the first few months of 2025. The outlook has, however, deteriorated significantly compared to the 2024 Article IV consultation, reflecting a fall in oil prices and tighter external financing conditions. As a result, the preliminary growth projection for 2025 has been revised down to 2.4 percent from 3 percent in the 2024 Article IV consultation, while inflation is expected to continue its gradual decline. This downward revision to the outlook also poses risks to fiscal performance. Staff was reassured by authorities’ strong resolve in containing emerging risks and in identifying mitigating measures critical to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, while protecting the most vulnerable and growth momentum. The IMF team thanks the authorities for their productive engagement and hospitality. Angola’s 2025 PFA is expected to be discussed at the IMF Executive Board in July 2025.

[1] A Post Financing Assessment (PFA)1 is expected for countries with outstanding credit above the absolute or quota-based thresholds that do not have an IMF-supported program or a staff-monitored program. It reports on the member’s policies, the consistency of the macroeconomic framework with the objective of medium-term viability and the implications for the member’s capacity to repay the Fund.

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Tatiana Mossot

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/13/pr-25143-angola-imf-staff-completes-2025-post-financing-assessment-mission

MIL OSI

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Costa Rica

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Costa Rica on May 12, 2025. [1]

Costa Rica has achieved remarkable economic progress due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. GDP growth has averaged above 5 percent per year since 2021, inflation is rising toward the Banco Central de Costa Rica’s (BCCR) target of 3 percent, public debt has fallen steadily to below 60 percent of GDP, international reserves are at comfortable levels, and systemic financial stability risks are contained.

Such factors are expected to support robust growth going forward notwithstanding external headwinds. This year, growth is expected to moderate to around potential (3½ percent) and the current account deficit is expected to increase slightly to 1.8 percent of GDP, while the primary surplus is expected to rise to 1¼ percent of GDP as fiscal consolidation continues. Inflation is expected to return to the BCCR’s target in 2026.

Risks to the growth outlook have tilted to the downside while those for inflation are balanced. Weaker external demand, tighter global financial conditions, and increased policy uncertainty could reduce Costa Rica’s exports, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic activity, but the country’s strategic location, high-value exports and economic diversification could drive continued strong growth momentum. Upside risks to inflation include strong credit growth and supply-side disruptions, but there are also downside risks, especially if inflation expectations soften.

Executive Board Assessment[2]

Executive Directors commended Costa Rica’s remarkable economic progress based on its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Directors welcomed the authorities’ very strong implementation of macroeconomic policies, wide‑ranging reforms in the process of becoming an OECD member, the successful completion of IMF‑supported programs, and a strategic focus on exports and economic diversification. They praised the authorities’ commitment to continued prudent policies and structural reforms to maintain resilience amid heightened external uncertainty.

Directors welcomed the sustained decline of public debt. They stressed that the medium‑term fiscal consolidation is appropriately paced but will require spending to be kept below the ceiling permitted by the fiscal rule. Directors concurred that tax reforms should aim to increase equity, efficiency, and the revenue‑to‑GDP ratio. They stressed the importance of full implementation of the public employment law by all public institutions without delay. The disputed claim by the social security system should also be resolved comprehensively, including by clarifying the central government budget’s responsibility, coupled with improvements in the registries of beneficiaries and the system’s governance and accountability. Directors also supported reforms to debt management to increase flexibility in issuing external debt.

Directors commended BCCR’s forward‑looking data‑dependent approach to monetary policy, which has proven effective. They concurred that there is scope to cut the policy rate if the convergence of inflation to the BCCR’s target weakens in the coming months. They also underscored the importance of passing legislation to further improve the BCCR’s governance, transparency, and accountability, and to institutionalize its de facto autonomy. Directors recommended that the exchange rate should be allowed to flexibly adjust to market conditions, limiting foreign exchange intervention to addressing market volatility.

Directors stressed that indicators of financial soundness remain comfortable, yet the resolution of small non‑bank financial institutions last year highlights the importance of a very strong supervisory and crisis management framework. They underscored the importance of passing the proposed amendments to the bank resolution and deposit insurance law. Directors also called for close monitoring of risks related to the rise in FX lending.

Directors welcomed the authorities’ efforts to advance supply‑side reforms to help sustain Costa Rica’s impressive economic performance. Reducing skills mismatches, enhancing infrastructure quality, and implementing legislation on public‑private partnerships would further strengthen potential growth. Better integrating climate considerations into public investment decisions will make infrastructure more resilient against natural disasters.


Costa Rica: Selected Economic Indicators

Projections

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Output and Prices

(Annual percentage change)

Real GDP

4.6

5.1

4.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

GDP deflator

6.3

-0.1

0.0

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

Consumer prices (period average)

8.3

0.5

-0.4

2.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

Savings and Investment

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Gross domestic saving

14.4

13.8

14.3

13.8

13.5

14.1

14.4

Gross domestic investment

17.7

15.3

15.7

15.6

15.4

15.7

16.0

External Sector

Current account balance

-3.3

-1.4

-1.4

-1.8

-1.9

-1.6

-1.5

Trade balance

-6.7

-3.7

-2.6

-3.4

-4.0

-3.7

-3.9

Financial account balance

-1.9

-0.7

-0.8

-1.8

-1.9

-1.6

-1.5

Foreign direct investment, net

-4.4

-4.3

-4.5

-4.1

-4.0

-4.1

-4.3

Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars)

8,724

13,261

14,181

14,932

15,792

16,485

17,301

External debt

50.7

43.3

42.0

42.1

43.3

44.0

44.4

Public Finances

Central government primary balance

2.1

1.6

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.6

Central government overall balance

-2.8

-3.3

-3.8

-3.2

-2.8

-2.5

-2.3

Central government debt

63.0

61.1

59.8

59.7

59.0

57.9

56.7

Money and Credit

Credit to the private sector (percent change)

3.3

1.9

6.2

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.6

Monetary base 1

8.0

7.9

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.2

Broad money

47.5

47.4

51.3

50.5

50.9

51.5

52.3

Memorandum Items

Nominal GDP (billions of colones)

44,810

47,059

49,116

52,307

55,830

59,647

63,720

Output gap (as percent of potential GDP)

-0.3

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

GDP per capita (US$)

13,240

16,390

17,909

19,095

20,036

21,057

22,138

Unemployment rate

11.7

7.3

6.9

7.5

8.0

8.5

8.5

Sources: Central Bank of Costa Rica, and Fund staff estimates.

1 Includes currency issued and required domestic reserves.



[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board .

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Meera Louis

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/13/pr25142-costa-rica-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation

MIL OSI

Statement by IMF African Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie on Meeting with President João Lourenço of Angola

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

Luanda, Angola: Mr. Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) African Department, met yesterday in Luanda with President João Lourenço of Angola. At the conclusion of the meeting, Mr. Selassie issued the following statement:

“It was very good to meet President Lourenço this morning. We had constructive discussions on Angola’s economy and the actions the government is taking in this challenging external environment.

“I congratulated him on Angola’s strong economic performance in 2024 and his administration’s efforts in reducing inflation and containing public debt vulnerabilities.

“We discussed approaches needed to contain emerging risks to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. In this regard, I noted that the IMF shares the President’s priorities of putting public finances on a sustainable path, while protecting the most vulnerable and maintaining the growth momentum. 

“The reforms the government has been pursuing in recent years have been gaining traction, as evidenced by the country’s improving attractiveness to private investment. 

“I emphasized the IMF’s readiness to continue supporting Angola’s efforts, and our commitment to maintain and strengthen our longstanding partnership.

 “I thanked President Lourenço, his Ministers, and the Governor of the Banco Nacional de Angola for the warm reception and very productive discussions they afforded me during my visit.”

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Tatiana Mossot

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/13/pr-25141-angola-imf-afr-dept-director-abebe-aemro-selassie-meeting-pres-joao-lourenco

MIL OSI

Denmark: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Copenhagen, Denmark:

Denmark’s strong growth has continued, primarily driven by pharmaceutical exports, while domestic demand has remained relatively sluggish. Staff expects output growth to moderate in the near term as external demand weakens. Direct impacts from U.S. tariffs are expected to be limited, but heightened trade tensions and trade policy uncertainty pose risks to the outlook. Denmark’s robust institutions, competitive and relatively diversified economic structure, strong fiscal position, and highly educated workforce all reinforce its resilience to external shocks. In this context, the policy priorities are as follows.

  • Uphold fiscal sustainability amid rising defense and aging-related expenditures.
  • Ensure financial stability by vigilantly monitoring risks, maintaining a prudent capital-based macroprudential policy setting, and tightening borrower-based measures.
  • Further intensify structural reforms to support high levels of income and sustain the welfare state.

Economic outlook and risks

  1. Staff anticipates a gradual moderation in GDP growth. Output growth is projected to decline from 3.7 percent in 2024 to 2.9 percent in 2025 and further to 1.8 percent in 2026. Export growth, including pharmaceutical exports, is expected to slow, while the full reopening of the Tyra natural gas and oil field will provide a temporary uplift. The U.S. is a key trading partner; however, exports produced in Denmark passing through customs account for only 3 percent of total exports, limiting the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on the Danish economy. Domestic demand is expected to gradually strengthen, driven by increased public expenditures and a modest recovery in private consumption due to improved consumer purchasing power. Beyond 2026, medium-term growth is projected at around 1.5 percent, reflecting a maturing pharmaceutical sector and a declining working-age population. Labor market pressures have eased, with inflation anticipated to stay around 2 percent.
  2. Risks to growth are on the downside. External risks dominate the outlook. A reversal of globalization, including higher trade barriers and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, would put the Danish economy at risk. Global uncertainty, including the intensification of regional conflicts, would dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on domestic demand. Upside risks to growth include a faster-than-expected resolution of trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as stronger pharmaceutical exports.

Maintaining fiscal sustainability amid rising defense and aging-related spending

  1. The fiscal surplus is expected to decline significantly. In February, the authorities announced a temporary rise in defense spending from 2¼ percent of GDP in 2024 to 3¼ percent in 2025 and 2026, returning to 2¼ percent by 2033. This increase adds to already planned personal income tax cuts and increased expenditures related to health, long-term care, and climate. As a result, staff projects the overall surplus to fall from 4½ percent of GDP in 2024 to 1¼ percent in 2025 and further to ½ percent of GDP in 2026. Although labor market pressures have eased, and fiscal multipliers for the planned measures are likely to be low, the resulting fiscal stimulus could be stronger than warranted by macroeconomic circumstances. Given these risks, the authorities should continue to exercise robust spending controls and save any revenue above budget forecasts for the remainder of 2025.
  2. Given Denmark’s robust fiscal position, the announced temporary increase in defense spending is manageable from a public finance sustainability perspective. Denmark has long anticipated rising spending pressures from an aging population and has successfully reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio to below 30 percent, down from nearly 50 percent a decade ago. Furthermore, a significantly higher-than-expected fiscal surplus in 2024 provides additional room to accommodate the increased defense spending. In the staff’s baseline scenario, the structural balance is expected to remain above the -1 percent of GDP floor over the medium term, consistent with Denmark’s fiscal rules and a stable debt-to-GDP ratio.
  3. However, significantly higher and more persistent increases in defense spending would require adjustment measures to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. These adjustment measures should be growth-friendly while ensuring fairness to preserve the welfare state. Specifically:
  • While both expenditure and revenue measures should be explored, given the already high tax burden, priority should be given to spending measures. To this end, an in-depth assessment of expenditures should be conducted to identify low-priority or inefficient spending, as well as the opportunity to enhance public administration efficiency by leveraging digitalization and AI.
  • Structural reform programs should be vigorously pursued to boost labor supply and enhance productivity. In this context, further raising the retirement age in line with improved life expectancy is vital to ensure fiscal sustainability.
  • The structural balance floor of -1 percent of GDP under current national fiscal rules should be respected.

Safeguarding financial stability

  1. Although systemic risks have been contained, heightened global risks warrant continued vigilance in monitoring financial sector risks. Banks are well-capitalized, with strong profitability, asset quality, and liquidity. To further strengthen the resilience of the financial system, the authorities should (i) ensure that banks maintain robust provisioning practices for credit risks, including a thorough examination of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 modeling practices; (ii) complete the ongoing review of internal ratings-based models promptly, followed by supervisory actions based on the results, and implement the EU’s CRR III/CRD VI as planned; (iii) continue efforts to enhance resilience against cyberattacks; and (iv) ensure that the Financial Supervisory Authority is adequately staffed across a full range of skills and experiences to deliver its mandates.
  2. Capital-based macroprudential policy is broadly appropriate, but borrower-based measures should be tightened to address pockets of vulnerabilities. Given heightened global risks and the fragile commercial real estate (CRE) sector, the 2.5 percent countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the 7 percent sector-specific systemic risk buffer, introduced in June 2024 to mitigate risks in the CRE sector, should remain in place for now. To address pockets of vulnerabilities in mortgages, the authorities should consider lowering the maximum loan-to-value ratio below the current 95 percent. In addition, incentives for bigger mortgages should be reduced by lowering the tax deductibility of mortgage interest expenses.
  3. The risks posed by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) should be closely monitored and assessed. The authorities have increased their focus on the NBFI sector in financial stability assessments. Given the considerable size and extensive interconnectedness of NBFIs within the financial system, as well as their susceptibility to market vulnerabilities, the authorities should continue strengthening the oversight framework for NBFIs. Key priorities include: (i) finalizing the supervisory order on the stress-testing framework for insurance and pension firms; (ii) developing a framework for systemic risk assessment that covers both banks and NBFIs; and (iii) ensuring that insurance and pension companies provide clear advice to clients about financial and longevity risks when selling non-guaranteed products.
  4. Addressing outstanding recommendations in the 2020 Financial Stability Assessment Program would further strengthen financial sector oversight and crisis management. The authorities have made significant strides in implementing numerous recommendations, especially in bank and insurance supervision and systemic liquidity. Important outstanding recommendations relate to systemic risk oversight and the governance of the resolution authorities.

Pursuing structural reforms

  1. Structural reforms should be further intensified to sustain high levels of income, preserve fiscal space, and sustain the welfare state. Over the past several decades, Denmark has benefited significantly from globalization, including reduced trade barriers and expanded global value chains. However, these conditions may shift due to rising geopolitical and trade tensions. An aging population would also weigh on potential growth. All these concerns underscore the pressing need for Denmark to reinforce structural reform efforts. Specifically,
  • Strengthening policies to support entrepreneurship while harnessing the benefits of digitalization and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Staff welcomes the progress made in implementing a new entrepreneurship strategy launched in June 2024 to support start-ups and scale-ups. Denmark excels in digitalization and is well-positioned to leverage the benefits of AI. In this regard, the authorities should continue reviewing the legal and technical barriers to AI adoption while ensuring sound ethical principles. While Denmark’s flexicurity model is well-suited to facilitate possible labor reallocation across sectors, the implications of digital technologies on labor markets, including job displacement, should be closely monitored.
  • Continuing efforts to ensure a sufficient labor supply with the right skills, such as IT, health, and long-term care professionals. The authorities’ ongoing focus on labor market reforms is appropriate, including recent initiatives to (i) reform education curricula to equip students with digitalization skills; (ii) enhance vocational education and training; and (iii) make the active labor market policy framework more cost-effective while maintaining the strengths of the Danish flexicurity model. Other policy priorities include: (i) aligning the foreign worker recruitment schemes, especially the salary requirement limit and the positive list, with labor market needs; and (ii) ensuring the effectiveness of integration programs to help foreign workers and families successfully integrate into Danish society.
  1. A deeper EU single market could boost Denmark’s business dynamism and potential growth. The EU single market, Denmark’s most important trade area, is fragmented. Deepening EU integration will enhance the benefits of economies of scale and network effects, thus expanding the market for Danish businesses. Simultaneously, the authorities should make efforts to reduce domestic regulatory burdens on businesses (e.g., reporting requirements) while balancing the costs and benefits of these regulations. Denmark’s commitment to supporting multilateral and transparent trade policies that promote mutually beneficial cooperation in global trade, knowledge, and investment flows is commendable.
  2. Strengthening climate adaptation will support sustainable growth. Due to its coastal location and flat topography, Denmark is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion, necessitating a well-designed long-term adaptation plan. The government is developing National Climate Adaptation Plan II, which focuses on enhanced coastal and groundwater protection, urban flood management, and the assessment of infrastructure needs, including financing responsibilities among central and local governments and the private sector. Simultaneously, the authorities are encouraged to reform the property insurance scheme (“Storm Surge Scheme”) to make insurance premiums risk-based.

The mission thanks the authorities and private sector counterparts for their accommodative flexibility, warm hospitality, and candid and high-quality discussions. The IMF team is especially grateful to the Danmarks Nationalbank for its assistance with meeting and logistical arrangements.

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IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on the First Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF)

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

  • The economy has been resilient, with economic growth reaching 6.5 percent in 2024, and projected to remain above 5 percent in 2025.
  • The escalation of the armed conflict in the eastern part of the country has placed significant strain on the budget, in addition to its severe humanitarian and social impact.
  • Credible revenue-enhancing measures, streamlining of non-priority spending, and accelerated reforms are critical to preserving the objectives of the ECF-supported program, which has been recalibrated to adapt to the new realities following the intensification of the conflict.

Washington, DC: A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Calixte Ahokpossi, IMF Mission Chief for the DRC, visited Kinshasa from April 30 to May 13, to hold discussions on the first review of the DRC’s economic and financial program supported by the IMF under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

At the end of the discussions, Mr. Ahokpossi issued the following statement:

“The DRC authorities and the IMF team have reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of the DRC’s three-year economic and financial program supported by the IMF under the ECF, subject to approval by IMF management and the Executive Board. Consideration by the IMF Executive Board is tentatively scheduled for end-June 2025.

“Since the last quarter of 2024, the DRC has faced an escalation of the armed conflict in its eastern part. The intensification of hostilities has claimed thousands of lives and caused severe humanitarian, social, and economic harm, particularly in the occupied provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu.

“Economic activity remained resilient, with robust GDP growth of 6.5 percent in 2024. Growth is projected to remain above 5 percent in 2025, driven by continued dynamism in the extractive sector. External stability has strengthened, underpinned by ongoing international reserves accumulation and a narrowing current account deficit—though still below the recommended adequacy level for import coverage. The resulting exchange rate stability observed since mid-2024, coupled with appropriately tight monetary policy, has helped ease inflationary pressures. Year-on-year inflation has returned to single-digit levels in April 2025, for the first time since July 2022.

“On the fiscal side, the conflict escalation has placed significant strain on public finances. Spending overruns—driven by sharp increases in exceptional security spending, public investment, and transfers to provinces and public entities—were only partially offset by strong revenue collection. As a result, the domestic fiscal deficit exceeded its programmed ceiling at end-2024. For 2025, the closure of revenue collection offices in the occupied eastern regions, combined with the exemption of basic food products from VAT and customs duties to ease the cost of living, have led to a revenue shortfall. Budgetary strains have also intensified, as exceptional security spending remained elevated through end-April of 2025, and salaries for military and police were doubled since March to bolster troops’ morale.

“The government has reaffirmed its commitment to the objectives of ECF-supported program, which has been recalibrated to reflect the new realities following the intensification of the conflict. This will help safeguard fiscal sustainability while enabling adequate fiscal space for pressing security and humanitarian needs without crowding out priority social and investment spending, especially in light of the suspension of a significant share of external humanitarian assistance. Offsetting revenue-enhancing measures and streamlining of non-priority spending—including a reduction in operating expenses of the government—have been identified and incorporated, along with expected additional concessional financing from the World Bank, into a draft 2025 supplementary budget Law to be submitted to Parliament. Additional concessional financing from development partners would be welcome.

“Progress on the structural reform agenda is encouraging. Reforms focused on modernizing public financial management are advancing: the legal framework was strengthened to induce stricter adherence to the expenditure chain, though its implementation needs to be tightened. The authorities are making progress in meeting key milestones to operationalize the Treasury, gradually decentralizing spending authorization to line ministries, establishing a treasury single account, and transitioning to a resource-based fiscal framework aimed at shielding public spending from the volatility of extractive revenues. In addition, domestic revenue-enhancing efforts should be stepped up, including by expediting the roll-out of the standardized VAT billing system, adopting an action plan to increase domestic revenue mobilization, streamlining inefficient tax exemptions, curbing tax evasion through tighter oversight of mineral exports, and further intensifying the fight against customs fraud at the borders. Stronger spending efficiency, including through better public investment management and stricter control of payroll abuses, remains critical, along with measures in the area of governance and transparency—including in the extractive sector— to combat corruption, and improve the business environment.

“Finally, the IMF staff urged the authorities to continue laying the groundwork for the timely implementation of the reform measures (RM) underpinning the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)–supported program. These RMs, coming due starting at the next review, are expected to help strengthen the DRC’s resilience to climate shocks while consolidating its role as a “solution country” in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.

“The IMF staff would like to express its gratitude to the authorities, senior officials, technical staff, and various stakeholders—including representatives of the civil society, the private sector, and development partners—for their hospitality, continued support, and constructive discussions.”

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https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/13/pr25140-democratic-republic-of-congo-imf-reaches-sla-with-drc-on-the-1st-review-under-ecf

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Mauritania: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on Fourth Review of Extended Fund and Extended Credit Facilities and the Third Review of Resilience and Sustainability Facility

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 9, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

  • The Mauritanian authorities and IMF staff have reached staff-level agreement on the Fourth Review of Mauritania’s economic program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the Third Review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
  • Economic activity was stronger than expected in 2024, and is projected to decelerate slightly in 2025, reflecting a contraction in the extractive sector.
  • Pursuing the authorities’ rule-based fiscal policy and exchange rate flexibility will help support the economy’s resilience amid heightened global uncertainty; and executing the national governance action plan, in line with best practices, will foster the role of the private sector in the economy.

Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Felix Fischer, visited Nouakchott and Nouadhibou during April 28– May 9, 2025 to hold discussions on the Fourth Review of Mauritania’s economic program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the Third Review of the RSF arrangement. At the end of the mission, Mr. Fischer issued the following statement:

“The Mauritanian authorities and IMF staff have reached a staff level agreement on policies to complete the Fourth Review of Mauritania’s 42-month blended EFF/ECF-supported program and the Third review of the RSF. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Mauritania will receive a disbursement of SDR 6.4 million (about $ 8.6 million) under the ECF and EFF arrangements and SDR 14.86 million (about $ 20.1 million) under the RSF arrangement, bringing the total disbursement under the EFF/ECF and the RST to SDR 111 million (about $ 148.4 million).

“Economic activity was stronger than expected, with a growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2024, higher than the initial projection of 4.6 percent. Economic growth rate in 2025 is projected to decelerate to 4.0 percent, due to a contraction in the extractive sector. The medium-term outlook remains broadly positive assuming further reforms will be implemented to diversify the economy and lift non-extractive economic growth.

“Performance under the program is broadly on track— all quantitative targets for end-December 2024 have been met. The fiscal adjustment was in line with the program targets due to higher tax revenue and spending restraint. The authorities’ commitment to a rule-based fiscal policy and exchange rate flexibility serves the country well in the context of heightened global uncertainty, and will help preserve macroeconomic stability and enhance resilience to shocks.

“The authorities committed to maintain the non-extractive primary deficit at MRU 15.4 billion (3.4 percent of GDP) in 2025. Improved domestic revenue mobilization and better spending efficiency will help create fiscal space to meet Mauritania’s significant development needs while preserving the medium-term budget credibility.

“The IMF team welcomed the recent progress in structural reforms, including enacting the central bank and banking laws and the new investment code. They encouraged authorities to move swiftly to finalize the implementing decrees of the laws on SOEs, the investment code, and the free zone of Nouadhibou. Steadfast execution of the homegrown Governance Action Plan, including the laws on the declaration of assets and interests and the anti-corruption authority, in line with the best practices, will foster transparency and accountability and enhance the business climate.

“The authorities continue to advance their climate agenda to strengthen Mauritania’s resilience to climate change. The parliament introduced the climate contribution and adopted regulations allowing access of private energy producers to power transmission infrastructure. The mission discussed next steps towards introducing the automatic fuel price mechanism and stressed the importance of scaling up well-targeted compensatory measures to mitigate the effects on the vulnerable households.

“The team met with His Excellency President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, President of the National Assembly Mohamed Ould Megett, Prime Minister Mokhtar Ould Diay, Governor of the Central Bank Mohamed Lamine Ould Dhehby, Minister of Economy and Finance Sid’Ahmed Bouh, Minister of Justice Mohamed Boya, Minister of Energy and Oil Mohamed Ould Khaled, Minister of Mining and Industry Thiam Tidjani, Minister of Hydraulics and Sanitation Amal Mint Mouloud, Minister Delegate in charge of the Budget Codioro Moussa N’guénore, other senior government officials, the civil society, the banking association and other representatives of the private sector, and the donor community.

“The IMF team would like to thank the Mauritanian authorities and various stakeholders for the excellent hospitality and cooperation and candid discussions during the mission.”

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https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/09/pr-25138-mauritania-imf-reaches-agreement-4th-rev-of-ef-and-ecf-and-3rd-rev-of-rsf

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IMF Executive Board Completes First Review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement with Pakistan and Approves the Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 9, 2025

  • The IMF Executive Board completed the first review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, allowing the authorities to draw the equivalent of about $1 billion. The authorities have demonstrated strong program implementation, which has contributed to improving financing and external conditions, and a continuing economic recovery.
  • Moving forward, policy priorities will include advancing reforms to strengthen competition, raise productivity and competitiveness, reform SOEs, improve public service provision and energy sector viability, and build climate resilience.
  • The Executive Board also approved the authorities request for an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), which will support Pakistan’s efforts in building economic resilience to climate vulnerabilities and natural disasters, with access of around $1.4 billion.

Washington, DC: Today, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic reform program supported by the EFF Arrangement. This decision allows for an immediate disbursement of around $1 billion (SDR 760 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to about $2.1 billion (SDR 1.52 billion). In addition, the IMF Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), with access of about US$1.4 billion (SDR 1 billion).

Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. Key priorities include (i) entrenching macroeconomic sustainability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening of the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision and energy sector viability; and (iv) building climate resilience.

Pakistan’s policy efforts under the EFF have already delivered significant progress in stabilizing the economy and rebuilding confidence, amidst a challenging global environment. Fiscal performance has been strong, with a primary surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP achieved in the first half of FY25, keeping Pakistan on track to meet the end-FY25 target of 2.1 percent of GDP. Inflation fell to a historic low of 0.3 percent in April, and progress on disinflation and steadier domestic and external conditions, have allowed the State Bank of Pakistan to cut the policy rate by a total of 1100 bps since June 2025. Gross reserves stood at $10.3 billion at end-April, up from $9.4 billion in August 2024, and are projected to reach $13.9 billion by end-June 2025 and continue to be rebuilt over the medium term.

The RSF will support the authorities’ efforts to reduce vulnerabilities to natural disasters and to build economic and climate resilience. The authorities’ program: (i) prioritizes resilience to natural disasters and strengthen public investment processes at all levels of government; (ii) makes the use of scarce water resources more efficient, including through better pricing; (iii) strengthens coordination of natural disaster response and financing between federal and provincial governments; (iv) improves the information architecture, for and disclosure of, climate-related risks by banks and corporates; and (v) supports Pakistan’s efforts to meet its mitigation commitments and reduce related macro-critical risks.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Nigel Clarke, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, made the following statement:

“Pakistan has made important progress in restoring macroeconomic stability despite a challenging environment. Since the approval of the Extended Fund Facility, the economy continues to recover, with inflation sharply lower and external buffers notably stronger. Risks to the outlook remain elevated, however, particularly from global economic policy uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, and persistent domestic vulnerabilities. Against this backdrop, the authorities need to maintain sound macroeconomic policies and accelerate reforms to safeguard the macroeconomic gains and underpin stronger and sustainable, private sector-led medium-term growth.

“The steadfast implementation of the FY2025 budget and the passage of key fiscal reforms, notably the Agricultural Income Tax, underpin the process of rebuilding policy making credibility. Continuing to mobilize greater revenue from undertaxed sectors and the noncompliant will make the tax system more equitable and efficient. This, combined with federal and provincial spending discipline, will strengthen sustainability, build resilience, and reduce the public sector’s crowding out of private credit.

“Timely implementation of power tariff adjustments has helped reduce the stock and flow of circular debt. Meanwhile, cost-side reforms are showing early signs of success but need to be accelerated to safeguard the energy sector’s viability and improve Pakistan’s competitiveness.

“The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) tight monetary policy stance has been pivotal in reducing inflation to historic lows. Monetary policy should remain appropriately tight and data-dependent to ensure inflation is anchored within the SBP’s target range. A more flexible exchange rate will facilitate the adjustment to external and domestic shocks, aiding the rebuilding of reserves. Prompt action to address undercapitalized financial institutions and vigilance over the financial sector are necessary for financial stability. Strengthening of AML/CFT frameworks is also needed.

“Accelerating structural reforms will unlock Pakistan’s competitiveness, creating conditions to attract high-impact private investment. Reform priorities include reducing trade and investment barriers, advancing SOE reforms, and decisively strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions.

“Reducing Pakistan’s vulnerability to extreme weather events will enhance macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. The reforms under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility aim to build resilience to natural disasters by strengthening public investment processes, supporting efficient use of scarce water resources, strengthening coordination of natural disaster response and financing, improving the information on climate-related risks, and supporting Pakistan in meeting its international commitments.”

Table 1. Pakistan: Selected Economic Indicators, FY2023–FY2025 1/

Population: 236.0 million (2023/24)

Per capita GDP: US$1,566.0 (2023/24)

Quota: SDR 2,031 million

Poverty rate: 21.9 percent

Main exports: Textiles (US$16.3 billion, 2023/24)

(national line; FY2019)

Key export markets: European Union, United States, UAE

FY2024

FY2025

FY2026

Proj.

Proj.

Output and prices (% change)

Real GDP at factor cost

2.5

2.6

3.6

Employment (%)

Unemployment rate

8.3

8.0

7.5

Prices (%)

Consumer prices, period average

23.4

5.1

7.7

Consumer prices, end of period

12.6

6.5

6.6

General government finances (% GDP)

Revenue and grants

12.6

15.9

15.2

Expenditure

19.4

21.6

20.3

Budget balance, including grants

-6.8

-5.6

-5.1

Budget balance, excluding grants

-6.8

-5.7

-5.1

Primary balance, excluding grants

0.9

2.1

1.6

Underlying primary balance (excluding grants) 2/

0.9

1.0

1.6

Total general government debt excl. IMF obligations

67.9

71.2

69.2

External general government debt

22.7

24.0

22.2

Domestic general government debt

45.2

47.3

47.0

General government debt incl. IMF obligations

70.1

73.6

71.9

General government and government guaranteed debt incl. IMF

74.1

77.6

75.6

Monetary and credit (% change, unless otherwise indicated)

Broad money

16.0

11.0

14.6

Private credit

6.0

11.0

17.5

Six-month treasury bill rate (%) 3/

21.5

Balance of Payments (% GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Current account balance

-0.5

-0.1

-0.4

Foreign direct investment

0.6

0.5

0.6

Gross reserves (millions of U.S. dollars) 4/

9,390

13,921

17,682

Months of next year’s imports of goods and services

1.6

2.3

2.8

Total external debt

31.7

33.1

31.3

Exchange rate (% change)

Real effective exchange rate

15.4

   Sources: Pakistani authorities; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

   1/ Fiscal year ends June 30.

 

 

             

   2/ Excludes one-off transactions, including asset sales. In FY25 it excludes the projected windfall from exceptionally high SBP dividends.

 

   3/ Period average.

               

   4/ Excluding gold and foreign currency deposits of commercial banks held with the State Bank of Pakistan.

               
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https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/09/pr-25137-pakistan-imf-completes-1st-rev-of-eff-arrang-and-approves-req-for-arrang-under-rsf

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IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Barbados on the Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 8, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country or a virtual staff visit. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

  • The IMF team reached a staff-level agreement with the Barbadian authorities on the completion of the fifth and final reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements. The IMF’s Executive Board is expected to consider both reviews in June. Once the reviews are approved by the IMF Executive Board, Barbados will have access to about US$57 million in financing.
  • Barbados’ economy continues to perform well. Growth has been robust, inflation has moderated, and the external position has strengthened. Nevertheless, risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, given the highly uncertain external economic environment and Barbados’ vulnerability to natural disasters.
  • Implementation of the home-grown Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan remains strong. The authorities continue to focus on increasing resilience by maintaining fiscal discipline and debt sustainability and accelerating structural reforms to deliver more inclusive and sustainable growth.

Bridgetown, Barbados: At the request of the Government of Barbados, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Michael Perks visited Barbados between May 2-8 to discuss the implementation of Barbados’ Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan, supported by the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements. To summarize the mission’s findings, Mr. Perks made the following statement:

“Following productive discussions, the IMF team and the Barbadian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the completion of the fifth and final reviews of the EFF and the RSF arrangements with Barbados. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, which is expected to consider the reviews in June. The completion of the final reviews will mark the successful conclusion of the arrangements and will allow the authorities to draw the remaining SDR 14.175 million (about US$19 million) under the EFF arrangement and SDR 28.35 million (about US$38 million) under the RSF arrangement.

“The economy grew strongly in 2024 and continues to expand in 2025, driven by tourism, construction, and business services. Inflation has moderated further, due to an easing of global commodity prices and prices of domestic goods and services. The external position has improved, with a significant strengthening of the current account in 2024. International reserves have increased to almost US$1.7 billion (equivalent to over 7 months of import cover), ample to support the exchange rate peg. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2025, sustained by construction related to tourism projects and public investment. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is subject to significant downside risks, given heightened global uncertainty and Barbados’ vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters.”

“Program performance remains strong. All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for the fifth review of the EFF were met. The fiscal primary surplus reached 4.3 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, with strong corporate tax revenues and prudent current spending controls enabling a significant increase in capital investment aimed at boosting infrastructure and resilience. For FY2025/26, the budget aims to reach a primary surplus of 4.4 percent of GDP, consistent with program projections. Public debt continues to decline, and the authorities remain firmly committed to reaching the 60 percent of GDP target by FY2035/36.

“The structural reform agenda is advancing, supported by technical assistance from the Fund and development partners. All three structural benchmarks (SBs) were met, including completing the assessment of human resource needs at the Barbados Customs and Excise Department, preparing a draft public-private partnership (PPP) framework and developing a daily liquidity forecasting framework by the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB). Efforts to strengthen growth and the business environment also continue to progress, including measures to address the skills gap.

“The authorities have completed both reform measures for the fifth RSF review. Key elements to strengthen the integration of climate concerns into public financial management have been delivered, including the development of public investment project appraisal guidelines, deepening of fiscal risk analysis, and preparation of a PPP framework. The CBB has also included physical climate risks in its bank stress testing exercise. In addition, the government has created a new Resilience and Regeneration Fund, repurposing the previous Catastrophe Fund with an expanded role and additional financing for disaster mitigation, response, and regeneration.

“The team would like to thank the authorities and other counterparts for their hospitality and the constructive and candid policy dialogue.”

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https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/08/pr-25136-barbados-imf-reaches-agreement-with-barbados-on-the-5th-rev-under-the-eff-and-rsf

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