Category: Russia

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

• The economy has been resilient, with economic growth reaching 6.5 percent in 2024, and projected to remain above 5 percent in 2025.
• The escalation of the armed conflict in the eastern part of the country has placed significant strain on the budget, in addition to its severe humanitarian and social impact.
• Credible revenue-enhancing measures, streamlining of non-priority spending, and accelerated reforms are critical to preserving the objectives of the ECF-supported program, which has been recalibrated to adapt to the new realities following the intensification of the conflict.

Washington, DC: A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Calixte Ahokpossi, IMF Mission Chief for the DRC, visited Kinshasa from April 30 to May 13, to hold discussions on the first review of the DRC’s economic and financial program supported by the IMF under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

At the end of the discussions, Mr. Ahokpossi issued the following statement:

“The DRC authorities and the IMF team have reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of the DRC’s three-year economic and financial program supported by the IMF under the ECF, subject to approval by IMF management and the Executive Board. Consideration by the IMF Executive Board is tentatively scheduled for end-June 2025.

“Since the last quarter of 2024, the DRC has faced an escalation of the armed conflict in its eastern part. The intensification of hostilities has claimed thousands of lives and caused severe humanitarian, social, and economic harm, particularly in the occupied provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu.

“Economic activity remained resilient, with robust GDP growth of 6.5 percent in 2024. Growth is projected to remain above 5 percent in 2025, driven by continued dynamism in the extractive sector. External stability has strengthened, underpinned by ongoing international reserves accumulation and a narrowing current account deficit—though still below the recommended adequacy level for import coverage. The resulting exchange rate stability observed since mid-2024, coupled with appropriately tight monetary policy, has helped ease inflationary pressures. Year-on-year inflation has returned to single-digit levels in April 2025, for the first time since July 2022.

“On the fiscal side, the conflict escalation has placed significant strain on public finances. Spending overruns—driven by sharp increases in exceptional security spending, public investment, and transfers to provinces and public entities—were only partially offset by strong revenue collection. As a result, the domestic fiscal deficit exceeded its programmed ceiling at end-2024. For 2025, the closure of revenue collection offices in the occupied eastern regions, combined with the exemption of basic food products from VAT and customs duties to ease the cost of living, have led to a revenue shortfall. Budgetary strains have also intensified, as exceptional security spending remained elevated through end-April of 2025, and salaries for military and police were doubled since March to bolster troops’ morale.

“The government has reaffirmed its commitment to the objectives of ECF-supported program, which has been recalibrated to reflect the new realities following the intensification of the conflict. This will help safeguard fiscal sustainability while enabling adequate fiscal space for pressing security and humanitarian needs without crowding out priority social and investment spending, especially in light of the suspension of a significant share of external humanitarian assistance. Offsetting revenue-enhancing measures and streamlining of non-priority spending—including a reduction in operating expenses of the government—have been identified and incorporated, along with expected additional concessional financing from the World Bank, into a draft 2025 supplementary budget Law to be submitted to Parliament. Additional concessional financing from development partners would be welcome.

“Progress on the structural reform agenda is encouraging. Reforms focused on modernizing public financial management are advancing: the legal framework was strengthened to induce stricter adherence to the expenditure chain, though its implementation needs to be tightened. The authorities are making progress in meeting key milestones to operationalize the Treasury, gradually decentralizing spending authorization to line ministries, establishing a treasury single account, and transitioning to a resource-based fiscal framework aimed at shielding public spending from the volatility of extractive revenues. In addition, domestic revenue-enhancing efforts should be stepped up, including by expediting the roll-out of the standardized VAT billing system, adopting an action plan to increase domestic revenue mobilization, streamlining inefficient tax exemptions, curbing tax evasion through tighter oversight of mineral exports, and further intensifying the fight against customs fraud at the borders. Stronger spending efficiency, including through better public investment management and stricter control of payroll abuses, remains critical, along with measures in the area of governance and transparency—including in the extractive sector— to combat corruption, and improve the business environment.

“Finally, the IMF staff urged the authorities to continue laying the groundwork for the timely implementation of the reform measures (RM) underpinning the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)–supported program. These RMs, coming due starting at the next review, are expected to help strengthen the DRC’s resilience to climate shocks while consolidating its role as a “solution country” in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.

“The IMF staff would like to express its gratitude to the authorities, senior officials, technical staff, and various stakeholders—including representatives of the civil society, the private sector, and development partners—for their hospitality, continued support, and constructive discussions.”

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/13/pr25140-democratic-republic-of-congo-imf-reaches-sla-with-drc-on-the-1st-review-under-ecf

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 9, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

• The Mauritanian authorities and IMF staff have reached staff-level agreement on the Fourth Review of Mauritania’s economic program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the Third Review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
• Economic activity was stronger than expected in 2024, and is projected to decelerate slightly in 2025, reflecting a contraction in the extractive sector.
• Pursuing the authorities’ rule-based fiscal policy and exchange rate flexibility will help support the economy’s resilience amid heightened global uncertainty; and executing the national governance action plan, in line with best practices, will foster the role of the private sector in the economy.

Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Felix Fischer, visited Nouakchott and Nouadhibou during April 28– May 9, 2025 to hold discussions on the Fourth Review of Mauritania’s economic program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the Third Review of the RSF arrangement. At the end of the mission, Mr. Fischer issued the following statement:

“The Mauritanian authorities and IMF staff have reached a staff level agreement on policies to complete the Fourth Review of Mauritania’s 42-month blended EFF/ECF-supported program and the Third review of the RSF. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Mauritania will receive a disbursement of SDR 6.4 million (about $ 8.6 million) under the ECF and EFF arrangements and SDR 14.86 million (about $ 20.1 million) under the RSF arrangement, bringing the total disbursement under the EFF/ECF and the RST to SDR 111 million (about $ 148.4 million).

“Economic activity was stronger than expected, with a growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2024, higher than the initial projection of 4.6 percent. Economic growth rate in 2025 is projected to decelerate to 4.0 percent, due to a contraction in the extractive sector. The medium-term outlook remains broadly positive assuming further reforms will be implemented to diversify the economy and lift non-extractive economic growth.

“Performance under the program is broadly on track— all quantitative targets for end-December 2024 have been met. The fiscal adjustment was in line with the program targets due to higher tax revenue and spending restraint. The authorities’ commitment to a rule-based fiscal policy and exchange rate flexibility serves the country well in the context of heightened global uncertainty, and will help preserve macroeconomic stability and enhance resilience to shocks.

“The authorities committed to maintain the non-extractive primary deficit at MRU 15.4 billion (3.4 percent of GDP) in 2025. Improved domestic revenue mobilization and better spending efficiency will help create fiscal space to meet Mauritania’s significant development needs while preserving the medium-term budget credibility.

“The IMF team welcomed the recent progress in structural reforms, including enacting the central bank and banking laws and the new investment code. They encouraged authorities to move swiftly to finalize the implementing decrees of the laws on SOEs, the investment code, and the free zone of Nouadhibou. Steadfast execution of the homegrown Governance Action Plan, including the laws on the declaration of assets and interests and the anti-corruption authority, in line with the best practices, will foster transparency and accountability and enhance the business climate.

“The authorities continue to advance their climate agenda to strengthen Mauritania’s resilience to climate change. The parliament introduced the climate contribution and adopted regulations allowing access of private energy producers to power transmission infrastructure. The mission discussed next steps towards introducing the automatic fuel price mechanism and stressed the importance of scaling up well-targeted compensatory measures to mitigate the effects on the vulnerable households.

“The team met with His Excellency President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, President of the National Assembly Mohamed Ould Megett, Prime Minister Mokhtar Ould Diay, Governor of the Central Bank Mohamed Lamine Ould Dhehby, Minister of Economy and Finance Sid’Ahmed Bouh, Minister of Justice Mohamed Boya, Minister of Energy and Oil Mohamed Ould Khaled, Minister of Mining and Industry Thiam Tidjani, Minister of Hydraulics and Sanitation Amal Mint Mouloud, Minister Delegate in charge of the Budget Codioro Moussa N’guénore, other senior government officials, the civil society, the banking association and other representatives of the private sector, and the donor community.

“The IMF team would like to thank the Mauritanian authorities and various stakeholders for the excellent hospitality and cooperation and candid discussions during the mission.”

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/09/pr-25138-mauritania-imf-reaches-agreement-4th-rev-of-ef-and-ecf-and-3rd-rev-of-rsf

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 9, 2025

• The IMF Executive Board completed the first review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, allowing the authorities to draw the equivalent of about $1 billion. The authorities have demonstrated strong program implementation, which has contributed to improving financing and external conditions, and a continuing economic recovery.
• Moving forward, policy priorities will include advancing reforms to strengthen competition, raise productivity and competitiveness, reform SOEs, improve public service provision and energy sector viability, and build climate resilience.
• The Executive Board also approved the authorities request for an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), which will support Pakistan’s efforts in building economic resilience to climate vulnerabilities and natural disasters, with access of around $1.4 billion.

Washington, DC: Today, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review of Pakistan’s economic reform program supported by the EFF Arrangement. This decision allows for an immediate disbursement of around $1 billion (SDR 760 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to about $2.1 billion (SDR 1.52 billion). In addition, the IMF Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), with access of about US$1.4 billion (SDR 1 billion).

Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. Key priorities include (i) entrenching macroeconomic sustainability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening of the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision and energy sector viability; and (iv) building climate resilience.

Pakistan’s policy efforts under the EFF have already delivered significant progress in stabilizing the economy and rebuilding confidence, amidst a challenging global environment. Fiscal performance has been strong, with a primary surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP achieved in the first half of FY25, keeping Pakistan on track to meet the end-FY25 target of 2.1 percent of GDP. Inflation fell to a historic low of 0.3 percent in April, and progress on disinflation and steadier domestic and external conditions, have allowed the State Bank of Pakistan to cut the policy rate by a total of 1100 bps since June 2025. Gross reserves stood at $10.3 billion at end-April, up from $9.4 billion in August 2024, and are projected to reach $13.9 billion by end-June 2025 and continue to be rebuilt over the medium term.

The RSF will support the authorities’ efforts to reduce vulnerabilities to natural disasters and to build economic and climate resilience. The authorities’ program: (i) prioritizes resilience to natural disasters and strengthen public investment processes at all levels of government; (ii) makes the use of scarce water resources more efficient, including through better pricing; (iii) strengthens coordination of natural disaster response and financing between federal and provincial governments; (iv) improves the information architecture, for and disclosure of, climate-related risks by banks and corporates; and (v) supports Pakistan’s efforts to meet its mitigation commitments and reduce related macro-critical risks.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Nigel Clarke, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, made the following statement:

“Pakistan has made important progress in restoring macroeconomic stability despite a challenging environment. Since the approval of the Extended Fund Facility, the economy continues to recover, with inflation sharply lower and external buffers notably stronger. Risks to the outlook remain elevated, however, particularly from global economic policy uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, and persistent domestic vulnerabilities. Against this backdrop, the authorities need to maintain sound macroeconomic policies and accelerate reforms to safeguard the macroeconomic gains and underpin stronger and sustainable, private sector-led medium-term growth.

“The steadfast implementation of the FY2025 budget and the passage of key fiscal reforms, notably the Agricultural Income Tax, underpin the process of rebuilding policy making credibility. Continuing to mobilize greater revenue from undertaxed sectors and the noncompliant will make the tax system more equitable and efficient. This, combined with federal and provincial spending discipline, will strengthen sustainability, build resilience, and reduce the public sector’s crowding out of private credit.

“Timely implementation of power tariff adjustments has helped reduce the stock and flow of circular debt. Meanwhile, cost-side reforms are showing early signs of success but need to be accelerated to safeguard the energy sector’s viability and improve Pakistan’s competitiveness.

“The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) tight monetary policy stance has been pivotal in reducing inflation to historic lows. Monetary policy should remain appropriately tight and data-dependent to ensure inflation is anchored within the SBP’s target range. A more flexible exchange rate will facilitate the adjustment to external and domestic shocks, aiding the rebuilding of reserves. Prompt action to address undercapitalized financial institutions and vigilance over the financial sector are necessary for financial stability. Strengthening of AML/CFT frameworks is also needed.

“Accelerating structural reforms will unlock Pakistan’s competitiveness, creating conditions to attract high-impact private investment. Reform priorities include reducing trade and investment barriers, advancing SOE reforms, and decisively strengthening governance and anti-corruption institutions.

“Reducing Pakistan’s vulnerability to extreme weather events will enhance macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. The reforms under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility aim to build resilience to natural disasters by strengthening public investment processes, supporting efficient use of scarce water resources, strengthening coordination of natural disaster response and financing, improving the information on climate-related risks, and supporting Pakistan in meeting its international commitments.”

Table 1. Pakistan: Selected Economic Indicators, FY2023–FY2025 1/

Population: 236.0 million (2023/24) Per capita GDP: US$1,566.0 (2023/24) Quota: SDR 2,031 million Poverty rate: 21.9 percent Main exports: Textiles (US$16.3 billion, 2023/24) (national line; FY2019) Key export markets: European Union, United States, UAE FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 Proj. Proj. Output and prices (% change) Real GDP at factor cost 2.5 2.6 3.6 Employment (%) Unemployment rate 8.3 8.0 7.5 Prices (%) Consumer prices, period average 23.4 5.1 7.7 Consumer prices, end of period 12.6 6.5 6.6 General government finances (% GDP) Revenue and grants 12.6 15.9 15.2 Expenditure 19.4 21.6 20.3 Budget balance, including grants -6.8 -5.6 -5.1 Budget balance, excluding grants -6.8 -5.7 -5.1 Primary balance, excluding grants 0.9 2.1 1.6 Underlying primary balance (excluding grants) 2/ 0.9 1.0 1.6 Total general government debt excl. IMF obligations 67.9 71.2 69.2 External general government debt 22.7 24.0 22.2 Domestic general government debt 45.2 47.3 47.0 General government debt incl. IMF obligations 70.1 73.6 71.9 General government and government guaranteed debt incl. IMF 74.1 77.6 75.6 Monetary and credit (% change, unless otherwise indicated) Broad money 16.0 11.0 14.6 Private credit 6.0 11.0 17.5 Six-month treasury bill rate (%) 3/ 21.5 … … Balance of Payments (% GDP, unless otherwise indicated) Current account balance -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 Foreign direct investment 0.6 0.5 0.6 Gross reserves (millions of U.S. dollars) 4/ 9,390 13,921 17,682 Months of next year’s imports of goods and services 1.6 2.3 2.8 Total external debt 31.7 33.1 31.3 Exchange rate (% change) Real effective exchange rate 15.4 … …    Sources: Pakistani authorities; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates and projections.    1/ Fiscal year ends June 30.                      2/ Excludes one-off transactions, including asset sales. In FY25 it excludes the projected windfall from exceptionally high SBP dividends.      3/ Period average.                    4/ Excluding gold and foreign currency deposits of commercial banks held with the State Bank of Pakistan.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/09/pr-25137-pakistan-imf-completes-1st-rev-of-eff-arrang-and-approves-req-for-arrang-under-rsf

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 8, 2025

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country or a virtual staff visit. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.

• The IMF team reached a staff-level agreement with the Barbadian authorities on the completion of the fifth and final reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements. The IMF’s Executive Board is expected to consider both reviews in June. Once the reviews are approved by the IMF Executive Board, Barbados will have access to about US$57 million in financing.
• Barbados’ economy continues to perform well. Growth has been robust, inflation has moderated, and the external position has strengthened. Nevertheless, risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, given the highly uncertain external economic environment and Barbados’ vulnerability to natural disasters.
• Implementation of the home-grown Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan remains strong. The authorities continue to focus on increasing resilience by maintaining fiscal discipline and debt sustainability and accelerating structural reforms to deliver more inclusive and sustainable growth.

Bridgetown, Barbados: At the request of the Government of Barbados, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Michael Perks visited Barbados between May 2-8 to discuss the implementation of Barbados’ Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan, supported by the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements. To summarize the mission’s findings, Mr. Perks made the following statement:

“Following productive discussions, the IMF team and the Barbadian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the completion of the fifth and final reviews of the EFF and the RSF arrangements with Barbados. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, which is expected to consider the reviews in June. The completion of the final reviews will mark the successful conclusion of the arrangements and will allow the authorities to draw the remaining SDR 14.175 million (about US$19 million) under the EFF arrangement and SDR 28.35 million (about US$38 million) under the RSF arrangement.

“The economy grew strongly in 2024 and continues to expand in 2025, driven by tourism, construction, and business services. Inflation has moderated further, due to an easing of global commodity prices and prices of domestic goods and services. The external position has improved, with a significant strengthening of the current account in 2024. International reserves have increased to almost US$1.7 billion (equivalent to over 7 months of import cover), ample to support the exchange rate peg. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2025, sustained by construction related to tourism projects and public investment. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is subject to significant downside risks, given heightened global uncertainty and Barbados’ vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters.”

“Program performance remains strong. All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for the fifth review of the EFF were met. The fiscal primary surplus reached 4.3 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, with strong corporate tax revenues and prudent current spending controls enabling a significant increase in capital investment aimed at boosting infrastructure and resilience. For FY2025/26, the budget aims to reach a primary surplus of 4.4 percent of GDP, consistent with program projections. Public debt continues to decline, and the authorities remain firmly committed to reaching the 60 percent of GDP target by FY2035/36.

“The structural reform agenda is advancing, supported by technical assistance from the Fund and development partners. All three structural benchmarks (SBs) were met, including completing the assessment of human resource needs at the Barbados Customs and Excise Department, preparing a draft public-private partnership (PPP) framework and developing a daily liquidity forecasting framework by the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB). Efforts to strengthen growth and the business environment also continue to progress, including measures to address the skills gap.

“The authorities have completed both reform measures for the fifth RSF review. Key elements to strengthen the integration of climate concerns into public financial management have been delivered, including the development of public investment project appraisal guidelines, deepening of fiscal risk analysis, and preparation of a PPP framework. The CBB has also included physical climate risks in its bank stress testing exercise. In addition, the government has created a new Resilience and Regeneration Fund, repurposing the previous Catastrophe Fund with an expanded role and additional financing for disaster mitigation, response, and regeneration.

“The team would like to thank the authorities and other counterparts for their hospitality and the constructive and candid policy dialogue.”

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/08/pr-25136-barbados-imf-reaches-agreement-with-barbados-on-the-5th-rev-under-the-eff-and-rsf

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 8, 2025

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation^[1] with member countries on common policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The Board considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.^[2]

The currency union has provided a strong anchor for macroeconomic stability. In 2024, strong tourism performance and continued infrastructure investments have supported robust growth of 3.9 percent, and inflation moderated to below 2 percent in tune with global trends. This has facilitated a moderate reduction in the currency union’s fiscal and external imbalances, although public debt remains high at above 71 percent of GDP and the post-pandemic trend of narrowing of sizable current account deficits has stalled. The ECCB’s stable reserves underpin a strong currency backing ratio. The ECCU financial system has remained stable, though exhibiting legacy asset quality and credit condition weaknesses.

The union’s recent growth momentum is projected to wane. Increasing constraints to tourism capacity and completion of major infrastructure projects are set to slow real GDP growth to around 2½ percent over the medium term. Modest growth prospects reflect weak productivity and local investment, as well as headwinds from ageing populations, a shrinking labor force, and constrained fiscal space for public investment in most union members. Fiscal and external imbalances are projected to narrow over the medium term, reflecting in part completion of import-intensive public investment projects.

Risks to the outlook remain mostly on the downside amid a highly uncertain external environment. As reported in the April World Economic Outlook, the escalation of trade tensions and high levels of policy uncertainty are a major negative shock to global economic activity. For ECCU economies, increased global trade and geopolitical tensions could give rise to disruptions to tourism and FDI inflows and renewed inflationary pressures. High public debt, persistent current account deficits and weaknesses in the local financial system amplify vulnerability to recurrent ND shocks alongside the uncertain outlook for future citizenship-by-investment inflows.

Executive Board Assessment^[3]

The ECCU has achieved a strong rebound from successive adverse shocks. Strong tourism performance and continued infrastructure investments have supported robust post‑pandemic growth, while inflation has moderated in tune with global trends. This has facilitated a moderate reduction in the currency union’s fiscal and external imbalances, although public debt levels and current account deficits remain high in several members. The ECCU’s external position is assessed as weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policies, but the current account deficits remain fully financed and the stability of the ECCB’s reserves underpin a strong currency backing ratio. The financial system has remained stable, albeit exhibiting continued asset quality and credit condition weaknesses. 

Growth momentum is nonetheless projected to wane and risks to the outlook remain mostly on the downside. Increasing constraints to tourism capacity and completion of major infrastructure projects are set to slow growth to around 2½ percent over the medium term. This modest growth potential reflects weak productivity and local investment, as well as headwinds from ageing populations, a shrinking labor force, and constrained fiscal space for public investment in most union members. Downside risks to the outlook are significant amid a highly uncertain external environment, where increased trade and geopolitical tensions could give rise to renewed inflationary pressures and disruptions to tourism and FDI inflows. High public debt, persistent current account deficits, and weaknesses in the local financial system amplify vulnerability to recurrent natural disaster (ND) shocks alongside the uncertain outlook for future Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows.

Achieving more robust, resilient, and inclusive long-term growth would support the currency union’s fiscal and external sustainability and raise living standards. To support this objective, common regional policies should be anchored in building economic, fiscal, and financial resilience and addressing supply bottlenecks that underpin the recent decades’ downward trend in the region’s growth potential.

A key policy priority is alleviating the region’s structural growth impediments, which calls for a coordinated multipronged approach. Addressing frictions to employment and skills development requires a renewed effort to attune human capital to economic needs and development priorities through vocational training and modernized education systems, complemented by active labor market policies and improved access to child and elderly care. Common policies can also enhance the scale, resilience, and efficiency of the region’s capital stock by helping to accelerate energy transition to local renewables, optimize the CBI funding model, and increase ND preparedness. Substantial productivity gains may also be achieved through cooperative efforts to address bottlenecks to innovation and allocative efficiency, including by digitalizing key services, streamlining licensing and administrative processes, and strengthening financial intermediation.

Fiscal policies should remain closely focused on rebuilding buffers, reducing public debt consistent with the regional debt anchor, and improving resilience to shocks. Region‑wide adoption of strong medium-term fiscal frameworks (MTFFs) embedded with well-designed fiscal rules and credible policy plans would support sustainability objectives and create policy space for growth-enhancing social and resilience investment. Comprehensive fiscal resilience strategies, including adequate disaster-financing frameworks, can help alleviate periodic ND disruptions to debt sustainability and support the region’s growth resilience. Strengthening fiscal management of uncertain CBI revenues can similarly alleviate risks and facilitate fiscal planning. These efforts can be supported by more institutionalized regional oversight and continued strengthening of national fiscal institutions.

Enhancing financial system resilience and reducing persistent credit-frictions can support a more conducive environment for growth-supporting local investment. Regional policy priorities include reducing vulnerabilities from legacy bank balance sheet weaknesses, mitigating risks from rapid credit union expansion, building readiness to manage risks from high dependency on global reinsurance, and strengthening national AML/CFT frameworks. Common minimum NBFI regulatory standards under the planned Eastern Caribbean Financial Stability Board (ECFSB) will be an important step toward their more unified oversight, although a more centralized supervisory structure would better facilitate management of regional stability risks. Coordinated efforts to reduce institutional frictions in local credit markets and support small ECCU businesses’ bankability can help address structural challenges in financial intermediation, revive local credit and investment, and foster development of a more vibrant private sector.

Strengthening economic data could significantly improve regional policy design and risk management. Priorities include addressing shortcomings in coverage, quality, and timeliness of key national and external accounts and reducing significant blind spots in areas such as the regional labor markets and CBI flows. Greater leveraging of synergies in regional data compilation and processing could help address persistent resource and capacity gaps.

Table 1. ECCU: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2020-2026 1/
					Est.	Proj.
	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
	(Annual percentage change)
Output and Prices
Real GDP	-17.6	6.5	11.8	3.7	3.9	3.5	2.7
GDP deflator	-2.2	4.4	4.1	3.3	2.7	1.7	2.1
Consumer prices, average	-0.6	1.7	5.6	4.0	2.3	1.9	2.0
Monetary Sector
Net foreign assets	6.1	16.5	-0.7	11.5	4.8	1.7	4.1
Central bank	3.6	11.6	-4.8	5.4	12.3	5.9	4.4
Commercial banks (net)	8.5	21.1	2.8	16.3	-0.5	-1.7	3.7
Net domestic assets	-16.5	1.2	13.0	-5.8	7.9	11.0	6.1
Of which: private sector credit	-0.9	1.5	1.6	3.6	4.7	5.1	2.5
Broad money (M2)	-4.7	10.1	4.6	4.3	6.0	5.3	4.9
	(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Public Finances
Central government
Total revenue and grants	29.0	30.5	29.7	30.0	30.8	28.3	27.3
Total expenditure and net lending	35.8	33.4	32.5	31.2	32.2	32.8	27.8
Overall balance 2/	-6.8	-2.9	-2.7	-1.3	-1.4	-4.5	-0.5
Of which: expected fiscal cost of natural disasters	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Excl. Citizenship-by-Investment Programs	-11.5	-8.7	-9.3	-8.0	-7.3	-8.4	-3.6
Primary balance 2/	-4.3	-0.6	-0.5	0.9	1.1	-1.8	1.7
Total public sector debt	89.2	84.5	76.2	73.9	71.2	70.8	69.9
External Sector
Current account balance	-19.1	-18.5	-12.3	-10.3	-10.4	-9.9	-8.3
Trade balance	-29.5	-30.1	-33.3	-32.0	-34.2	-34.1	-32.7
Exports, f.o.b. (annual percentage change)	-28.5	31.5	40.5	21.9	-9.7	13.9	11.4
Imports, f.o.b. (annual percentage change)	-23.2	15.2	29.7	5.3	11.0	5.8	1.9
Services, incomes and transfers	10.4	11.6	20.9	21.8	23.9	24.2	24.5
Of which: travel	17.1	20.5	34.6	39.8	42.1	42.2	42.5
External public debt	47.9	47.6	42.6	42.7	42.1	43.7	44.8
External debt service (percent of goods and nonfactor services)	21.3	14.8	10.3	9.0	10.3	9.1	8.6
International reserves
In millions of U.S. dollars	1,747	1,952	1,869	1,972	2,202	2,332	2,435
In months of prospective year imports of goods and services	5.7	4.8	4.0	4.0	4.2	4.4	4.4
In percent of broad money	28.1	28.5	26.1	26.4	27.8	28.0	27.9
REER (average annual percentage change)
Trade-weighted 3/	-.07	-2.8	3.1	-1.1	-1.0	…	…
Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ Includes all eight ECCU members unless otherwise noted. ECCU consumer price aggregates are calculated as weighted averages of individual country data. Other ECCU aggregates are calculated by adding individual country data. The staff report projections are based on the information available as of March 31, 2025. It, therefore, does not reflect the impact of the escalation of trade tensions on and after April 2, 2025. 2/ Projections include expected fiscal costs of natural disasters. 3/ Excludes Anguilla and Montserrat.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. Staff hold separate annual discussions with the regional institutions responsible for common policies in four currency unions—the Euro Area, the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, the Central African Economic and Monetary Union, and the West African Economic and Monetary Union. For each of the currency unions, staff teams visit the regional institutions responsible for common policies in the currency union, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the currency union’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis of discussion by the Executive Board. Both staff’s discussions with the regional institutions and the Board discussion of the annual staff report will be considered an integral part of the Article IV consultation with each member.

[2] The staff report reflects discussions with the authorities during January 8-16 and January 27-February 10, 2025, and is based on the information available as of March 31, 2025. It, therefore, does not reflect the impact of the escalation of trade tensions on and after April 2, 2025. Based on information available until April 29, 2025, and covered in the Staff Supplement, the thrust of the staff appraisal remains unchanged.

[3] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/08/pr-24135-caribbean-imf-concludes-2025-discussions-on-policies-of-east-carib-currency-union

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 8, 2025

San Marino: Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement today in San Marino at the end of his visit:

“I am delighted to be in San Marino. This is my first visit, and I would like to thank Captains Regent Bronzetti and Righi, Finance Minister Gatti, Minister of Foreign Affairs Beccari, Central Bank President Tomasetti, Central Bank Managing Director Vivoli, as well as other ministers and senior officials for their warm hospitality and for the productive discussions.”

“In the last decade, San Marino’s economy has transformed from overreliance on the financial sector serving non-residents and moved towards a diversified growth model, driven by the manufacturing and non-financial services. The economy is in a much stronger position today, thanks to the authorities’ stewardship. Prudent fiscal policies, moderate wage growth, and access to international capital markets have allowed the country to weather the pandemic and the energy crises. Despite the regional slowdown and high global interest rates, San Marino’s economy continues to be resilient, with employment levels at record highs.”

“I commended the authorities for their ongoing efforts to reduce public debt. Pension reform and prudent wage growth policy have strengthened the fiscal position. We discussed plans to continue building fiscal buffers by containing spending, advancing income tax reforms and introducing VAT. We also discussed the challenges of fiscal policy in the current context of trade tensions and heightened uncertainty.”

“In addition, we discussed the authorities’ efforts to reduce financial sector vulnerabilities, including resolving banking sector legacy issues and addressing nonperforming loans, via securitization and strengthened bank regulations. While banks’ liquidity, capitalization, and profitability have improved, banks will need to improve their cost efficiency to ensure long-term viability. I welcomed the progress in implementing the Anti-Money Laundering / Countering the Financing of Terrorism framework.”

“The conclusion of the EU association agreement negotiations is another milestone for San Marino. The agreement will help local businesses access the EU market and will enhance the quality of San Marino’s public administration as it adopts the EU regulatory framework.”

“I very much appreciate the excellent, long-standing relations between San Marino and the IMF. I look forward to strengthening our continued partnership through regular policy dialogue and technical assistance.”

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/08/pr25134-san-marino-statement-imf-deputy-managing-director-kenji-okamura-conclusion-his-visit

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 8, 2025

Kingston, Jamaica: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte held meetings in Kingston (and virtually) with Jamaica government counterparts, private sector, civil society, and development partners during April 30-May 7 to conduct the 2025 Article IV consultation. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Villafuerte issued the following statement:   

“Over the last decade, Jamaica has successfully reduced its public debt, firmly anchored inflation and inflation expectations, and strengthened its external position. It has built an enviable track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. Jamaica has met recent global shocks and natural disasters in a manner that is agile, prudent, and supportive of growth.

GDP declined in FY2024/25 due to hurricane Beryl and tropical storm Raphael which damaged agriculture and infrastructure and undermined tourism. Nonetheless,  economic activity is projected to normalize as these effects wane. Unemployment has fallen to all-time low levels (3.7 percent in January 2025) and inflation has converged to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ)’s target band of 4-6 percent. The current account has been in a modest surplus for the last two fiscal years with strong tourism revenues and high remittances. The international reserves’ position has continued to improve.

“The outlook points to growth settling at its potential rate once the FY2025/26 recovery is complete and with inflation stabilizing at the BOJ’s target range. Nonetheless, global developments require continued close monitoring. Global downside risks emanating from tighter global financial conditions, lower growth in key source markets for tourism, and trade policy disruptions remain high. Finally, extreme weather events—such as floods, hurricanes, or earthquakes—could negatively affect economic activity.

“The Jamaican authorities continue to implement sound macroeconomic policies, aided by robust policy frameworks. A primary surplus is expected for FY2025/26 leading public debt to fall towards 65 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year, the lowest level in 25 years and well below pre-pandemic levels. The Bank of Jamaica’s approach to monetary policy has anchored inflation around the mid-point of the inflation target band and inflation expectations have declined close to the upper band of the BOJ’s target range. The lowering of the policy rate in 2024 was justified in view of the temporary nature of the weather-related shocks and the expected convergence of inflation to the BOJ’s target. The current fiscal-monetary policy mix places Jamaica in a good position to respond to the various downside global risks, should they be realized.

“The policy frameworks are benefitting from ongoing improvements. A Fiscal Commission became operational in 2025 and is providing assessments of the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts as well as the budget’s consistency with Jamaica’s fiscal rules. The wage bill reform has reduced distortions in public sector compensation, increasing both transparency and competitiveness of civil service salaries. Tax and customs administration improvements are increasing compliance. Progress continues with adopting the Basel III framework, introducing a “twin peaks” supervisory regime, expanding the BOJ’s supervisory perimeter, and enhancing consolidated supervision.

“Going forward the wage bill needs to be carefully managed to avoid crowding out other fiscal priorities. At the same time, there is room to improve the efficiency of public spending per recommendations of an Agile Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability assessment completed in June 2024. The fiscal responsibility law could benefit from the adoption of an explicit operational debt anchor below the current debt limit to help guide policies over the medium term, ensure that debt is kept at moderate levels, and build fiscal buffers. Implementing reforms to deepen foreign exchange market and allow greater exchange rate flexibility would strengthen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Financial stability should be further bolstered by passing the Special Resolution Regime law and making further improvements to the AML/CFT framework.

“The authorities are implementing policies to foster potential growth and tackle supply side constraints that inhibit growth. Low productivity has been worsened by structural impediments including high crime, barriers to competition, poor educational outcomes, inadequate infrastructure, and barriers to trade. The authorities are addressing these issues by increasing investments in policing and security (which has led to a sustained decline in major crimes). Efforts are also underway to establish an unemployment insurance and strengthen employment services (including job counseling and job matching). The authorities continue to introduce measures to reduce pollution and incentivize the adoption of low carbon technologies. Finally, a comprehensive action plan is being developed to improve statistics.  

“The IMF team is grateful to the Jamaican authorities and other counterparts for their hospitality and very productive discussions.”

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/08/mcs-05072025-jamaica-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission

MIL OSI

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 7, 2025

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana.[1]

Guyana’s economic transformation is advancing strongly and broadening in scale. Rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output, and large-scale public infrastructure investment supported the highest real GDP growth rate in the world, averaging 47 percent per year since 2022. Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024, while real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent, reflecting a solid broad-based performance across sectors. Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, from 2 percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices (affected by international food prices and earlier floods). The overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP (11.7 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP (21 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2024 reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure. Driven by higher oil exports, Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24½ percent of GDP. By end-2024, gross international reserves surpassed US$1 billion, while the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion (over 12½ percent of GDP). 

The economic outlook remains highly favorable. The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth. Positive spillovers from the oil sector and improvements in infrastructure, productivity, and resilience are expected to boost the real non-oil GDP growth to an average of 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average. While inflation is projected to edge up to around 4 percent in 2025, the overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025. Over the medium term, the continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF.

Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. On the upside, additional oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investments, including to strengthen energy resilience would further bolster Guyana’s long-term economic prospects, while expanding construction activity would support higher short-term non-oil GDP growth. Downside risks stem from overheating pressures which, if not contained, would lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy. Commodity price volatility in a highly uncertain global environment, including from trade policy and climate shocks could also adversely affect inflation and alter the macroeconomic outlook.

Executive Board Assessment[2]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Guyana’s remarkable economic progress to attain high-income status, supported by rapidly expanding oil production and robust non-oil growth. They noted that Guyana’s economic outlook remains highly favorable with balanced risks, strong fundamentals, and a strong external position supported by substantial accumulation of oil revenue in the Natural Resource Fund. They commended the authorities’ commitment to balancing development needs with prudent policies to entrench macroeconomic and fiscal stability.

Directors concurred that the current fiscal stance is appropriate given development needs. They welcomed the authorities’ commitment to eliminate the overall fiscal deficit over the medium term and further narrow the non-oil primary deficit to levels consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and preserving fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability. They highlighted the need for a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit anchor and an operational target, along with regular assessments of expenditure related to reaching development objectives. They positively noted the authorities’ continued efforts to strengthen public financial management as well as the low risk of debt distress given low public debt.

Directors considered the monetary policy stance as appropriately tight to help contain inflation, while noting the need for further tightening if inflation risks escalate. They saw merit in enhancing the monetary policy toolkit and deepening financial markets to help strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. They emphasized the need for maintaining consistent policies to support the stabilized exchange rate arrangement, which remains appropriate, and saw merit in assessing whether transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime over the medium term could be beneficial as Guyana’s economy continues to transform.

Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to maintain financial stability and continue enhancing financial supervision, including monitoring sectoral lending exposures and related-party lending. They supported the authorities’ efforts to further strengthen risk monitoring, strengthen the macroprudential framework, broaden regulatory coverage, and enhance statistics on balance sheets and real estate prices.

Directors welcomed the authorities’ efforts to foster inclusive growth and economic diversification, improve the business environment, strengthen climate and energy resilience, and enhance labor market skills. They commended progress in strengthening governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries, and supported the continued efforts to strengthen them in line with international standards.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Guyana will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

Table 1. Guyana: Selected Social and Economic Indicators
I.  Social Indicators
Population, 2023 (thousands)	814
Life expectancy at birth (years), 2022	66
Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), 2023	14
Human Development Index rank, 2022	95
II.  Economic Indicators
			Prel.		Proj.
	2023		2024		2025
	(Year-over-year percent change)
Production and Prices
Real GDP	33.8		43.6		10.3
Real non-oil GDP	12.3		13.1		12.9
Real oil GDP	46.8		57.7		9.5
Consumer prices (end of period)	2.0		2.9		4.2
	(Percent of non-oil GDP)
Central Government
Revenue	39.3		43.7		49.9
Grants	0.2		0.2		0.4
Expenditure	52.7		64.9		63.4
Current	25.1		28.9		30.5
Capital	27.7		36.0		32.9
Overall balance (after grants)	-13.3		-21.0		-13.2
Non-oil primary balance (after grants)	-26.2		-38.4		-37.5
	(Percent of GDP)
Revenue	17.0		15.3		18.6
Grants	0.1		0.1		0.1
Expenditure	22.8		22.6		23.7
Current	10.8		10.1		11.4
Capital	12.0		12.6		12.3
Overall balance (after grants)	-5.7		-7.3		-4.9
Total public sector gross debt	26.7		24.3		28.0
External	10.5		9.0		13.6
Domestic	16.2		15.2		14.4
Table 1. Guyana: Selected Social and Economic Indicators (Concluded)
			Prel.		Proj.
	2023		2024		2025
	(Year-over-year percent change)
Money and Credit
Broad money	27.6		25.3		17.7
Domestic credit of the banking system	24.1		39.7		4.9
External Sector
Current account balance (US$ million)	1,679.9		6,067.9		2,306.2
(Percent of GDP)	9.9		24.6		8.9
Gross official reserves (US$ million)	896.4		1,010.1		1,571.4
(Percent of GDP)	5.3		4.1		6.1
Crude oil production (million barrels)	142.3		225.4		246.0
Memorandum Items:
Nominal GDP (GY$ billion)	3,527.5		5,141.3		5,383.9
Nominal non-oil GDP (GY$ billion)	1,524.6		1,793.7		2,010.7
GDP per capita (US$)	21,307.2		30,962.3		32,326.3
Guyana dollar/U.S. dollar (period average)	208.5		208.5		…
Sources: Guyana’s authorities; UNDP Human Development Report; World Bank; and IMF staff calculations and projections.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/07/pr-25132-guyana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation

MIL OSI