Source: IMF – News in Russian
June 24, 2025
End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF’s Executive Board for discussion and decision.
- Vietnam’s economy started 2025 strongly, with 6.9% year-on-year growth in the first
- quarter. However, the outlook is more challenging amid global trade tensions and high uncertainty.
- There is room for greater support by fiscal policy to cushion the impact of global shocks if needed. Allowing more flexibility in the exchange rate and strengthening the financial system will be important.
- Implementation of the ambitious reform agenda encompassing institutional overhauls, private sector strengthening, and infrastructure improvements present an opportunity to raise medium-term growth. Further reforms to boost productivity, strengthen governance, and improve the business environment are also critical.
Hanoi: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Mr. Paulo Medas, held discussions for the 2025 Article IV consultation with the Vietnamese authorities from June 11-24, 2025. The team exchanged views with Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc, senior officials of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the Ministry of Finance, the National Assembly, and other government agencies. It also met with representatives from the private sector, think tanks, and other stakeholders.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Medas issued the following statement:
“The Vietnamese economy rebounded strongly in 2024, growing at 7.1 percent backed by robust exports, resilient foreign direct investment (FDI), and supportive policies. This momentum continued into the first quarter of 2025, with economic activity expanding by 6.9 percent (y/y). Inflation remained contained. The current account surplus reached a record 6.6 percent of GDP in 2024.
“The outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations and is constrained by elevated global uncertainty on trade policies and economic growth. Our projections, in line with the IMF April 2025 World Economic Outlook, assumes high tariffs take effect in the third quarter. In such a scenario, economic growth is projected to slow to 5.4 percent in 2025 and decelerate further in 2026. However, if global trade tensions subside, the economic outlook would improve significantly.
“Downside risks are high. A further escalation in global trade tensions or a tightening of global financial conditions could weaken further exports and investment. Domestically, financial stress could re-emerge from tighter financial conditions and high corporate indebtedness. On the upside, achieving nondiscriminatory trade agreements and successfully implementing planned infrastructure and structural reforms could significantly boost medium-term growth.
“Given the uncertain outlook, policy priorities should focus on preserving macro-financial stability while navigating economic adjustments. Fiscal policy, supported by low level of public debt, should take the lead in cushioning the near-term impact especially under downside scenarios. Accelerated implementation of public investment and strengthening social safety nets would be important.
“Monetary policy has much more limited room and should be decisively focused on anchoring inflation expectations. Allowing the exchange rate flexibility will be critical as the economy adjusts to the external shock. Some monetary easing could be considered if global interest rates decline as expected and inflation falls. Vigilance is needed to monitor and act against inflation pressures arise, including due to external shocks. These challenges underscore the importance of modernizing the monetary policy framework to enhance its effectiveness and anchor stability, including by replacing credit growth limits with an improved prudential framework.
“Further efforts are needed to strengthen financial sector soundness. To bolster banking system resilience, priorities include strengthening bank supervision, build liquidity and capital buffers, and further improving the bank resolution framework.
“The government’s plans for an ambitious reform agenda are very welcome and could boost medium-term growth, but implementation will be key. The government’s focus on institutional reforms to enhance efficiency, strengthen private sector development, and plans to scale up public investment is a major step forward. It will be important to develop and implement concrete reforms to improve key infrastructure (e.g., logistics, energy), functioning of capital markets, education and training, and productivity. To maximize the return on large investments, it is critical to strengthen public investment management and adopt a sound macro-fiscal strategy to preserve the health of public finances. Efforts to strengthen economic governance are essential, including strengthening the AML/CFT regime, and efforts in this regard are welcome. Vietnam’s rapid economic growth is outpacing the development of its economic statistics and urgent efforts are needed to close data gaps to support effective policymaking and risk management.
“The team is grateful to the authorities for their warm hospitality and the candid and insightful discussions.”
IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/24/pr-25214-vietnam-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission