Denmark: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission

Source: IMF – News in Russian

May 13, 2025

Copenhagen, Denmark:

Denmark’s strong growth has continued, primarily driven by pharmaceutical exports, while domestic demand has remained relatively sluggish. Staff expects output growth to moderate in the near term as external demand weakens. Direct impacts from U.S. tariffs are expected to be limited, but heightened trade tensions and trade policy uncertainty pose risks to the outlook. Denmark’s robust institutions, competitive and relatively diversified economic structure, strong fiscal position, and highly educated workforce all reinforce its resilience to external shocks. In this context, the policy priorities are as follows.

• Uphold fiscal sustainability amid rising defense and aging-related expenditures.
• Ensure financial stability by vigilantly monitoring risks, maintaining a prudent capital-based macroprudential policy setting, and tightening borrower-based measures.
• Further intensify structural reforms to support high levels of income and sustain the welfare state.

Economic outlook and risks

1. Staff anticipates a gradual moderation in GDP growth. Output growth is projected to decline from 3.7 percent in 2024 to 2.9 percent in 2025 and further to 1.8 percent in 2026. Export growth, including pharmaceutical exports, is expected to slow, while the full reopening of the Tyra natural gas and oil field will provide a temporary uplift. The U.S. is a key trading partner; however, exports produced in Denmark passing through customs account for only 3 percent of total exports, limiting the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on the Danish economy. Domestic demand is expected to gradually strengthen, driven by increased public expenditures and a modest recovery in private consumption due to improved consumer purchasing power. Beyond 2026, medium-term growth is projected at around 1.5 percent, reflecting a maturing pharmaceutical sector and a declining working-age population. Labor market pressures have eased, with inflation anticipated to stay around 2 percent.
2. Risks to growth are on the downside. External risks dominate the outlook. A reversal of globalization, including higher trade barriers and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, would put the Danish economy at risk. Global uncertainty, including the intensification of regional conflicts, would dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on domestic demand. Upside risks to growth include a faster-than-expected resolution of trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as stronger pharmaceutical exports.

Maintaining fiscal sustainability amid rising defense and aging-related spending

3. The fiscal surplus is expected to decline significantly. In February, the authorities announced a temporary rise in defense spending from 2¼ percent of GDP in 2024 to 3¼ percent in 2025 and 2026, returning to 2¼ percent by 2033. This increase adds to already planned personal income tax cuts and increased expenditures related to health, long-term care, and climate. As a result, staff projects the overall surplus to fall from 4½ percent of GDP in 2024 to 1¼ percent in 2025 and further to ½ percent of GDP in 2026. Although labor market pressures have eased, and fiscal multipliers for the planned measures are likely to be low, the resulting fiscal stimulus could be stronger than warranted by macroeconomic circumstances. Given these risks, the authorities should continue to exercise robust spending controls and save any revenue above budget forecasts for the remainder of 2025.
4. Given Denmark’s robust fiscal position, the announced temporary increase in defense spending is manageable from a public finance sustainability perspective. Denmark has long anticipated rising spending pressures from an aging population and has successfully reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio to below 30 percent, down from nearly 50 percent a decade ago. Furthermore, a significantly higher-than-expected fiscal surplus in 2024 provides additional room to accommodate the increased defense spending. In the staff’s baseline scenario, the structural balance is expected to remain above the -1 percent of GDP floor over the medium term, consistent with Denmark’s fiscal rules and a stable debt-to-GDP ratio.
5. However, significantly higher and more persistent increases in defense spending would require adjustment measures to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. These adjustment measures should be growth-friendly while ensuring fairness to preserve the welfare state. Specifically:

• While both expenditure and revenue measures should be explored, given the already high tax burden, priority should be given to spending measures. To this end, an in-depth assessment of expenditures should be conducted to identify low-priority or inefficient spending, as well as the opportunity to enhance public administration efficiency by leveraging digitalization and AI.
• Structural reform programs should be vigorously pursued to boost labor supply and enhance productivity. In this context, further raising the retirement age in line with improved life expectancy is vital to ensure fiscal sustainability.
• The structural balance floor of -1 percent of GDP under current national fiscal rules should be respected.

Safeguarding financial stability

6. Although systemic risks have been contained, heightened global risks warrant continued vigilance in monitoring financial sector risks. Banks are well-capitalized, with strong profitability, asset quality, and liquidity. To further strengthen the resilience of the financial system, the authorities should (i) ensure that banks maintain robust provisioning practices for credit risks, including a thorough examination of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 modeling practices; (ii) complete the ongoing review of internal ratings-based models promptly, followed by supervisory actions based on the results, and implement the EU’s CRR III/CRD VI as planned; (iii) continue efforts to enhance resilience against cyberattacks; and (iv) ensure that the Financial Supervisory Authority is adequately staffed across a full range of skills and experiences to deliver its mandates.
7. Capital-based macroprudential policy is broadly appropriate, but borrower-based measures should be tightened to address pockets of vulnerabilities. Given heightened global risks and the fragile commercial real estate (CRE) sector, the 2.5 percent countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the 7 percent sector-specific systemic risk buffer, introduced in June 2024 to mitigate risks in the CRE sector, should remain in place for now. To address pockets of vulnerabilities in mortgages, the authorities should consider lowering the maximum loan-to-value ratio below the current 95 percent. In addition, incentives for bigger mortgages should be reduced by lowering the tax deductibility of mortgage interest expenses.
8. The risks posed by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) should be closely monitored and assessed. The authorities have increased their focus on the NBFI sector in financial stability assessments. Given the considerable size and extensive interconnectedness of NBFIs within the financial system, as well as their susceptibility to market vulnerabilities, the authorities should continue strengthening the oversight framework for NBFIs. Key priorities include: (i) finalizing the supervisory order on the stress-testing framework for insurance and pension firms; (ii) developing a framework for systemic risk assessment that covers both banks and NBFIs; and (iii) ensuring that insurance and pension companies provide clear advice to clients about financial and longevity risks when selling non-guaranteed products.
9. Addressing outstanding recommendations in the 2020 Financial Stability Assessment Program would further strengthen financial sector oversight and crisis management. The authorities have made significant strides in implementing numerous recommendations, especially in bank and insurance supervision and systemic liquidity. Important outstanding recommendations relate to systemic risk oversight and the governance of the resolution authorities.

Pursuing structural reforms

10. Structural reforms should be further intensified to sustain high levels of income, preserve fiscal space, and sustain the welfare state. Over the past several decades, Denmark has benefited significantly from globalization, including reduced trade barriers and expanded global value chains. However, these conditions may shift due to rising geopolitical and trade tensions. An aging population would also weigh on potential growth. All these concerns underscore the pressing need for Denmark to reinforce structural reform efforts. Specifically,

• Strengthening policies to support entrepreneurship while harnessing the benefits of digitalization and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Staff welcomes the progress made in implementing a new entrepreneurship strategy launched in June 2024 to support start-ups and scale-ups. Denmark excels in digitalization and is well-positioned to leverage the benefits of AI. In this regard, the authorities should continue reviewing the legal and technical barriers to AI adoption while ensuring sound ethical principles. While Denmark’s flexicurity model is well-suited to facilitate possible labor reallocation across sectors, the implications of digital technologies on labor markets, including job displacement, should be closely monitored.
• Continuing efforts to ensure a sufficient labor supply with the right skills, such as IT, health, and long-term care professionals. The authorities’ ongoing focus on labor market reforms is appropriate, including recent initiatives to (i) reform education curricula to equip students with digitalization skills; (ii) enhance vocational education and training; and (iii) make the active labor market policy framework more cost-effective while maintaining the strengths of the Danish flexicurity model. Other policy priorities include: (i) aligning the foreign worker recruitment schemes, especially the salary requirement limit and the positive list, with labor market needs; and (ii) ensuring the effectiveness of integration programs to help foreign workers and families successfully integrate into Danish society.

11. A deeper EU single market could boost Denmark’s business dynamism and potential growth. The EU single market, Denmark’s most important trade area, is fragmented. Deepening EU integration will enhance the benefits of economies of scale and network effects, thus expanding the market for Danish businesses. Simultaneously, the authorities should make efforts to reduce domestic regulatory burdens on businesses (e.g., reporting requirements) while balancing the costs and benefits of these regulations. Denmark’s commitment to supporting multilateral and transparent trade policies that promote mutually beneficial cooperation in global trade, knowledge, and investment flows is commendable.
12. Strengthening climate adaptation will support sustainable growth. Due to its coastal location and flat topography, Denmark is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion, necessitating a well-designed long-term adaptation plan. The government is developing National Climate Adaptation Plan II, which focuses on enhanced coastal and groundwater protection, urban flood management, and the assessment of infrastructure needs, including financing responsibilities among central and local governments and the private sector. Simultaneously, the authorities are encouraged to reform the property insurance scheme (“Storm Surge Scheme”) to make insurance premiums risk-based.

The mission thanks the authorities and private sector counterparts for their accommodative flexibility, warm hospitality, and candid and high-quality discussions. The IMF team is especially grateful to the Danmarks Nationalbank for its assistance with meeting and logistical arrangements.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/12/mcs-denmark-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission

MIL OSI